New analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) predicts that a failure to achieve widespread deployment of heat pumps will lead to the UK having a greater dependency on foreign gas, with the extra imports coming at a cost of £500million in 2030, rising to £1.3bn in 2035.

The study outlines a range of factors that could contribute to this outcome, but the government’s go-slow approach was identified as an underlying issue. 

Currently there is uncertainty over whether the government will ban gas connections to new homes from 2024. If this ban does not materialise, the study says, it could see the UK buying an additional 200TWh of foreign gas from countries such as Qatar between 2024 and 2035 – equivalent to the annual gas consumption of over 16 million homes. 

Analysts estimate that by 2035, the cost of these extra gas imports for heating could reach over £9bn, based on current predictions that show gas prices will remain at 2-3 times pre-energy crisis levels for the rest of the decade.

The UK can lower its imports as North Sea supplies decline by accelerating the rollout of renewables, making homes more energy efficient and fitting low carbon heating.

However, the costs of gas to individual households could be even more significant as new, cheaper renewables come online to replace gas in electricity generation. For example, a new build home that is built in the next few years with a gas boiler could expect to spend around £3500 more on gas by 2035 than a new home with an electric heat pump, and an existing home that continues to use a gas boiler could spend around £4000 on gas by 2035. Foreign gas companies would benefit from the bulk of this (£3000), as the North Sea continues to decline and imports rise in the 2020s and 2030s.

The ECIU’s energy analyst Jess Ralston comments: “The government faces a choice: continue subsidising oil and gas, and leave households exposed to volatile gas prices, or direct investment through bold policy into renewables instead.

“Electric heat pumps sales are booming in Europe and the US, who are dubbing them ‘freedom pumps’ in the light of Russia’s interference in the international gas market. Households with ‘hydrogen ready’ gas boilers are at risk of being left with a stranded asset as hydrogen may never be pumped into the grid at scale. 

“Every heat pump we install means less gas needs to be bought from places like Qatar, with the income going to renewables on British soil or seabed instead.”