The UK could lose more than £65m worth of central heating boiler (and parts) exports every year by 2030, if the industry does not start switching to clean heating solutions.

This is according to new analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), which says this could cost a total of £1.3bn in lost exports between 2030 and 2050.

In 2022, the UK exported around £85m worth of central heating boilers and their parts, according to United Nations trade data. Of the total exports, over three-quarters (77%, £65m) went to countries that have at least target phase out dates for fossil fuel boilers set within the next seven years.

The country that imported the most boilers and their parts from the UK in 2022 was Ireland, followed by Germany and the Netherlands.

Of the top ten export countries, which account for the vast majority of exports at £81m, seven have phase out dates of 2029 or sooner, with the US (£15.6m), Australia (£1.2m) and Turkey (£2.1m) being the exceptions that do not.

Total UK exports of central heating boilers have roughly halved between 2019 and 2022, from around £150m to £85m, possibly related to the world moving away from gas boilers in response to high gas prices, concerns over gas supplies as the war in Ukraine continues, and the need reduce carbon emissions from home heating on the path to net zero. Around 3 million heat pumps were sold in Europe in 2022, an increase of 40% from the year before, taking the total sold to over 20 million.

Commenting on the analysis, Jess Ralston, energy analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said: “The IMF has said that the UK was worst hit by the gas crisis because we are so dependent on it and the OBR has shown that we could add 13% GDP to debt if we don’t transition away. The North Sea is a declining basin no matter what the government policy on it, so unless we reduce our gas demand through insulation and heat pumps, we’re going to end up importing more from abroad.

“The switch to clean heat is continuing at pace outside of the UK as the US and Europe learn their lesson from the gas crisis. It’s starting to look like we haven’t. The UK’s existing boiler manufacturers must be able to see the writing on the wall. With clear signals from Government on the future of heating at home, we can take our expertise abroad and get ahead on heat pumps before we lose our place amongst the leaders of the world’s heating industry.”