As we move through 2026, the heating industry in the UK stands at a critical juncture, says Neil Mattock, marketing director at Vokèra. While headlines about ‘gas boiler bans’ have created some uncertainty, the reality for installers is more complex, presenting both challenges and opportunities. Understanding the regulatory landscape, market trends and emerging technologies will be essential for staying competitive in the year ahead.
The regulatory picture
This year, UK households face mounting pressure as energy costs continue to rise and climate concerns increase. The need for efficient and sustainable heating has never felt more urgent. New regulations and trends, including the recently announced Warm Homes Plan, will significantly affect the UK boiler market, as moves are made towards increasing the use of low-carbon heating solutions. The Warm Homes Plan will see £15 billion of investment in upgrading 5 million UK homes with energy efficient heating solutions (heat pumps, solar panels and batteries), at either low cost, or no cost for low-income families. The UK has set ambitious targets this year to reduce carbon emissions from domestic heating, and contrary to earlier speculation, recent government announcements indicate changes to earlier proposals regarding restrictions on new gas boiler sales; however, policy remains subject to further updates. Gas boilers remain a viable option for existing homes, and all new boilers must meet minimum efficiency standards of 92% under Boiler Plus regulations.
Smart technology in modern gas boilers
Conventional gas boiler technology continues to advance. Today’s premium models incorporate sophisticated features that improve efficiency and user experience. Digital modulation pumps with electronic control provide precise flow regulation, optimising system circulation and heat distribution while minimising energy waste. Performance characteristics such as NOx levels, noise output and modulation ratios vary by model and manufacturer. Modern premium boilers can incorporate these features, depending on system design.
User interfaces have evolved dramatically, with colour touchscreen displays replacing traditional knobs and dials, offering intuitive navigation and real-time system information. Perhaps most significantly, built-in communication protocols such as OpenTherm and use of smart controls allow homeowners to manage their heating remotely via smartphone apps, providing convenience and potential energy savings through more precise control. These technological refinements demonstrate that gas boilers, even as the industry evolves towards low-carbon solutions, remain at the cutting edge of home heating innovation.
Heat pump market growth accelerates
Nearly 100,000 heat pumps were sold in the UK in 2024, marking a 63% increase in sales from the previous year[1] with no signs of slowing down. The UK heat pump market is projected to grow at 11.1% CAGR through 2030[2], creating substantial opportunities for installers who develop the necessary skills. These figures are based on publicly available industry data as referenced and may vary depending on methodology and future regulatory developments.
Under the Warm Homes Plan, some funding has been set aside to support installers with the training required for heat pump installation and maintenance. The plan also aims to make switching to heat pumps a much easier and faster process for homeowners, with the goal to enable a standard heat pump installation upgrade from a gas boiler to be completed within three days of the installer and customer agreeing a final quote. Those who invest time in heat pump training now, will be well-positioned as demand continues to grow due to the government’s target of 600,000 annual installations by 2028. Notably, the UK government has doubled the budget for the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, which persuades people to switch from traditional fossil fuel systems, to £295 million by 2026, making low-carbon upgrades more accessible for many homeowners. There is a £7,500 grant available to households installing heat pumps to offset the installation costs, and this year the scheme will be expanded to include air-to-air heat pumps, which will be eligible for £2,500 grants. These incentives may improve accessibility for some households, although costs, benefits and installation suitability vary by property.
The hydrogen heating prospect
This year, the government is expected to decide on whether hydrogen will play a significant role in heat decarbonisation. If the decision is made to move forward with this, hydrogen-related requirements may be introduced from 2030 depending on future government decisions, though no final policy has yet been confirmed. Currently, hydrogen heating trials are ongoing, but it’s important for installers to stay informed of any developments.
What’s the strategy for 2026?
Gas boilers are not going anywhere overnight, and replacements will remain the key sales area for existing homes in 2026 and for some years to come. However, it is essential that installers can diversify into heat pumps, as current policy signals suggest continued emphasis on low‑carbon heating, though future industry direction will depend on further regulatory and market developments.
In addition to maintaining their expertise in gas boiler installations and building confidence in heat pump systems, key areas to focus on in the coming year include staying up-to-date with the Warm Homes Plan, Boiler Upgrade Scheme and educating customers about the costs and benefits of different heating options. The installers who thrive will be the ones who embrace the changing landscape, while continuing to serve their existing customer base with excellence. With the right preparation and commitment to ongoing learning, 2026 offers installers the opportunity to position themselves at the forefront of the heating industry’s evolution.
[1] https://www.heatpumps.org.uk/domestically-manufactured-heat-pumps-account-for-a-third-of-uk-heat-pump-sales-in-2024/
[2] https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/united-kingdom-heat-pumps-market
Vokèra, is a part of Riello, a leader in high energy-efficiency heating and climate solutions. For further information, please visit: www.vokera.co.uk
