Retrofit heat pump installations in the UK fell to 10,693 in the first quarter of 2026, down 18% on the previous quarter and 22% lower than a year earlier, according to new government statistics.
Despite the quarterly decline, installations remained more than double the level recorded in the first quarter of 2021, when 4,607 units were installed.
Air-to-water heat pumps accounted for 99% of retrofit installations in the latest quarter, up from around 90% in the same period five years earlier. Regionally, the South East accounted for the largest share of installations at 18%, followed by the South West at 14% and the East of England at 13%.
Northern Ireland was the only UK region to record quarterly growth, with installations rising from nine in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 30 in the first quarter of 2026, although volumes remained comparatively low.
London recorded the strongest percentage growth over the five-year period, with installations rising 624% from 70 in the first quarter of 2021 to 507 in the first quarter of 2026. The South East also saw a significant increase over the same period, up 316% from 453 to 1,886 installations.
However, the Heat Pump Association (HPA UK) suggests the slowdown in retrofit installations may not reflect the wider heat pump market. Its data shows heat pump sales for heating buildings were flat quarter on quarter in the first three months of 2026 and 5% higher than a year earlier. Including domestic hot water heat pumps, sales rose 17% year on year.
The association says growth has been driven by the new-build sector, with heat pump installations in new homes up 38% compared with the first quarter of 2025. The share of heat pump sales going into new-build properties also increased from 55% to 61% between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.
Charlotte Lee, chief executive of HPA UK, says:
“Whilst today’s statistics show an 18% decrease in domestic retrofit heat pump deployment between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, this is not the full picture. The closure of the Energy Company Obligation and slower deployment of heat pumps through the Warm Homes: Social Housing Fund are directly impacting the domestic retrofit market.
“To maintain confidence, support investment and ensure heat pumps remain accessible to all, government must urgently clarify future support for low-income households and introduce the zero/low-interest consumer loans promised in the Warm Homes Plan.”
While the HPA argues that growth in new-build installations is helping to offset weakness in the retrofit market, other industry figures said the decline in retrofit deployments remains a concern and highlights the need for continued support to accelerate heat pump adoption.
Swetta Coopamah, head of smart energy systems at BEAMA, says:
“A fall of 22% year on year in retrofit heat pump installations is a reminder that growth cannot be taken for granted. The focus now should be on giving manufacturers and consumers the confidence needed to accelerate long-term adoption.
“The pace of electrification may vary from year to year, but the direction of travel is clear. Despite heat pump installations slowing this quarter and year on year, the electricity network still needs to keep pace.”
Sachin Vibhute, technical consultant and product training manager at LG Electronics, adds:
“Though the heat pump market is maturing, installations have dropped with today’s heat pump deployment figures showing a decrease of 22% year on year. This should act as a red flag. Whilst Boiler Upgrade Scheme applications continue to grow steadily, deployments are falling – this could point to a bottleneck developing in the installation of heat pumps. What we can’t estimate is how much more rapidly the market could have scaled given greater investment into skills and training.
“The uptake in London tells a slightly different story. With an increase of 23% YoY, the region represents growing public confidence in the more complex retrofit installations – also, that the government’s easing of planning restrictions last year may have made an impact.”
